Exploring market opportunities for African production and the implications for national decarbonisation policy
By: Dr Simon Chin-Yee, Professor Collins Odote, Dr Roberto Cardinale, Ms Irene Maithya
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are widely regarded as the single most important lever for reducing carbon emissions from the aviation sector in the coming decades. The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) envisages a 5% reduction in aviation emissions by 2030 through the deployment of SAF, equivalent to approximately 23 million tonnes (Mt) of clean energy demand. Against current global SAF production of just 1 Mt, the supply gap is substantial and growing. Click HERE to download full article
The University College London (UCL) and the University of Nairobi (UoN) held a SAF workshop on 30 June 2026. Supported by the UCL Grand Challenges scheme, this workshop brought together policymakers, regulators, airlines and technical experts to examine the conditions under which African countries can become a major production hub for SAF — and what this implies for national decarbonisation policy. It was a frank discussion of the realities and possibilities of harnessing renewable energy on the Continent for specific use by the aviation industry. Five thematic presentations were followed by a structured discussion with participants representing Kenya, the wider African region and international partners.
Three core messages emerged from the day. First, Africa holds a comparative advantage in SAF production thanks to the abundance of geothermal, solar, wind and water for green hydrogen, as well as agricultural and municipal waste streams for feedstock and CO2 capture — a combination that is unlikely to be replicable in heavily populated industrialised economies, such as Europe. Second, this advantage can only be realised through coordinated action across policy (political buy-in), finance (investment), industry (the airlines) and research (R&D). Third, a just and equitable transition must be designed from the outset, with international frameworks (ICAO) aligned to national economic and industrial circumstances.
